November 28, 2023
The Convention Board Client Confidence Index rose in November after three consecutive months of decline. The index now stands at a studying of 102.0 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October.
“November’s enhance in client confidence was concentrated primarily amongst homeowners aged 55 and up; against this, confidence amongst homeowners aged 35-54 declined barely,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Convention Board, stated in a press assertion. “Basic enhancements have been seen throughout the spectrum of revenue teams surveyed in November. Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed shoppers stay preoccupied with rising costs on the whole, adopted by struggle/conflicts and better rates of interest.”
The Expectations Index — based mostly on shoppers’ short-term outlook for revenue, enterprise and labor market situations — rose to a studying of 77.8 (1985=100) in November, up from its downwardly revised studying of 72.7 in October. Nevertheless, regardless of the month’s enchancment, the Expectations Index stays under 80 for a 3rd consecutive month — a stage that traditionally indicators a recession throughout the subsequent 12 months.
The Current State of affairs Index — based mostly on shoppers’ evaluation of present enterprise and labor market situations — fell to a studying of 138.2 (1985=100) from 138.6 reported in October.
“Assessments of the current state of affairs ticked down in November, pushed by much less optimistic views on present job availability, which outweighed barely improved views on the state of enterprise situations,” Peterson stated.
Extra shoppers in November stated that enterprise situations have been “good,” 19.8% in comparison with 18.3% in October. Nevertheless, extra shoppers, 19.5%, additionally stated they have been “unhealthy” in November, up from 19.8% in October.
Shoppers’ appraisal of the labor market was blended in November, as 39.3% of shoppers stated jobs have been “plentiful,” up barely from 37.9% in October, whereas 15.4% stated jobs have been “laborious to get,” up from 14.1% in October.
Shoppers’ evaluation of the short-term labor market outlook was barely extra optimistic in November. Whereas 16.1% of shoppers anticipate extra jobs to be out there, up from 15.3% in October, 19.6% anticipate fewer jobs, down barely from 19.7%.
